1. D2N2 ECONOMIC RISK & RECOVERY TRACKER
We track several high-level indicators to give a snapshot of the D2N2 area’s progress towards recovery. A brief overview of monthly indicators available at a local level is below.
Unemployment and work-related benefit claims continue to follow a slow recovery path decreasing by 7.8% between May 2020 and January 2021 after roughly doubling between March and May 2020. Nationally, the claimant count has decreased by 3.4% since May 2020. In January 2021 the claimant count was at 75,000 compared to 39,200 claimants last January, making up 5.4% of the working age population, lower than the 6.2% national average.
Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, which supports employers in paying their employees furloughed from 1 March 2020, has seen an increase in claims in November and December. A total of 111,500 D2N2 jobs were supported through the scheme in December 2020, 30,700 of which were in Accommodation and Food Services and a further 19,000 in Wholesale and Retail Trade.
Self-Employment Income Support Scheme, which provides support for self-employed individuals whose business has been adversely affected by Covid-19, through a series of grants. The number of claims in December 2020 have decreased compared to previous months totalling 52,600, a third of which working in Construction sector. Overall, the December 2020 furlough and self-employment claims made up 15.2% of population in employment pre-pandemic, compared to 17.7% nationally.
Green colour on the key metrics show better performance compared to national average
Job vacancies have recovered and January figures show a 4.9% increase from January 2020 levels, compared to a 1.1% decline nationally. The number of job vacancies in D2N2, however, is still below the number of unemployment claimants. While apprenticeship vacancies follow a similar recovery trend, the numbers are 11% below last year’s levels . Nationally, apprenticeship vacancies were 21.5% lower over the same period.
D2N2 workplace activity is around 40% below the pre-pandemic baseline, according to Google mobility data for D2N2, which remained below November and December levels throughout January and February.
Workplace mobility trends, Google
Negative impact of Covid-19 on ambitious businesses has decreased over time. Beauhurst estimate that, as of 1 March 2021, around 9.6% of businesses are facing a high level of risk whilst 20.9% may experience a positive outcome. Nationally a slightly higher proportion of ambitious businesses are experiencing high levels of risk (10.6%) and potentially positive outcomes (21.7%).
As expected, sectors that rely on customer footfall such as leisure and entertainment and retail are the most significantly affected while tech driven sectors that enable remote working, such as VoIP, EdTech, eHealth and Digital security, have the highest proportion of positively impacted businesses.
Covid-19 business impact over time, Beauhurst