1. D2N2 ECONOMIC RISK AND RECOVERY
We track several high-level indicators to give a snapshot of the D2N2 area’s progress towards recovery. A brief overview of monthly or higher frequency indicators at a local level are available below.
Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS), which supports employers in paying their employees furloughed from 1 March 2020, has seen a decrease in claims in May 2021 with a total of 95,600 D2N2 jobs supported through the scheme. The main sectors remain accommodation and food services, and wholesale and retail trade – accounting for 45% of all claims.
Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) provides support for self-employed individuals whose business has been adversely affected by Covid-19 through a series of grants. The number of claims received up to 9 May 2021 (totalling 45,500) is lower compared to January 2021. A third of all claims were in the Construction sector. A more detailed analysis of the latest CJRS and SEISS data will be available here.
Unemployment and work-related benefit claims continues to follow a slow recovery path decreasing by 10.0% from the May 2020 peak and the most recent data for May 2021. Nationally, the claimant count has decreased by 5.9% over the same period. In May 2021, the D2N2 claimant count was at 73,250 compared to 81,370 last May. Claimants as a percentage of the working age population are 5.3% in D2N2 compared to 6.0% nationally. A more detailed analysis of the latest claimant count data is available here.
Job vacancies have recovered since last year’s lows and April’s figures show a 59.4% increase from May 2020 levels, compared to a 39.8% increase nationally. The number of job vacancies in D2N2 now exceeds the number of unemployment claimants.
Notifications of redundancies (HR1) are significantly lower compared to the levels seen in June, July and November 2020. In May 2021, manufacturing continues to account for a large proportion of notifications, followed by education and professional, scientific and technical activities. Nationally in April 2021 the sectors with most notifications of redundancies were manufacturing, financial and insurance activities, and education.
HR1 notifications by sector and month in D2N2
D2N2 workplace activity in June was around 25% below the pre-pandemic baseline, according to Google mobility data for D2N2, which has been trending upwards since January. At the end of May, visits to retail and recreation locations has exceeded the baseline levels for the first time since August 2020 and is currently slightly below the baseline levels (-3%).
Workplace mobility trends in D2N2, Google
Retail and Recreation mobility trends in D2N2, Google
Negative impact of Covid-19 on ambitious businesses has decreased over time. Beauhurst estimate that, as of June 1st, around 1.9% of businesses in D2N2 are still facing a high level of risk whilst 34.2% potentially expect a positive outcome. Nationally a slightly higher proportion of ambitious businesses are experiencing high levels of risk (2.8%) and a lower percentage are potentially expecting positive outcomes (31.0%).
Covid-19 business impact over time in D2N2, Beauhurst
Estimates of Covid-19 impact based on national surveys
In collaboration with Nottingham Trent University and the University of Nottingham, D2N2 LEP has published an online tool showing quarterly estimates of private sector employment, sales and investment at local authority level based on Decision Maker Panel (DMP) and Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES).
The estimates show that in Q2 2021 private sector employment, sales and capital expenditure are below the levels expected without the impact of Covid-19 by 6.5%, 10.2% and 12.6%, respectively. These indicators are not expected to fully recover until after 2022.
According to the estimates, D2N2 areas impacted more than the average in terms of private sector jobs are likely to be Derbyshire Dales, Newark and Sherwood, High Peak, Mansfield, Nottingham, Erewash and Gedling.