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News - 24 November 2021

D2N2 Economic Recovery Report: November 2021

Welcome to the latest edition of the D2N2 Economic Recovery Report.

This report pulls together information from across the region to understand the impacts of Covid-19 on our economy.

A PDF version of this D2N2 Economic Recovery Report is available for download here.

This latest report focuses on several key areas:

  1. D2N2 Economic Risk and Recovery
  2. Links to Data on D2N2

For previous editions of the D2N2 Economic Recovery Report, please visit here.

1. D2N2 ECONOMIC RISK AND RECOVERY

We track a number of high-level indicators to give a snapshot of the D2N2 area’s economic recovery progress.

Local Data Update

The above percentages in bold for furlough and self-employed claims and job vacancies show better outcomes compared to the national average

Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS), which supports employers in paying their employees furloughed from 1 March 2020, has seen a further decrease in claims in September 2021 with a total of 31,800 D2N2 jobs supported through the scheme. The main sectors remain Wholesale and Retail Trade, Manufacturing and Accommodation and Food Services accounting for 43% of all claims.

Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) provides support for self-employed individuals whose business has been adversely affected by Covid-19 through a series of grants. The number of claims received up to 7 October 2021 totalling 32,200 is currently lower compared to January 2021 [1]. A third of all claims were in Construction sector. A more detailed analysis of the latest CJRS and SEISS data will be available here.

Unemployment and work-related benefit claims continue to follow a slow recovery path decreasing by 23.4% from the May 2020 peak. The most recent data for September 2021 show 62,330 claimants. Nationally, the claimant count has decreased by 21.9% over the same period. Claimants as a percentage of the working age population make up 4.5% in D2N2 compared to 5.0% nationally. A more detailed analysis of the latest claimant count data is available here.

Job vacancies have recovered since last year’s lows and September figures show a 49.7% increase compared to September last year. Nationally job vacancies are up by 47.2%. The number of job vacancies in D2N2 now exceeds the number of unemployment claimants. A third of all job postings over the last 6 months were in higher paid managerial and professional occupations.

Notifications of large-scale redundancies (HR1) [2] are significantly lower compared to the levels seen last year. In September 2021 Manufacturing, Trade and Transportation and Storage accounted for all notifications. Over the same month nationally, the sectors with most notifications of redundancies were Trade, Manufacturing and Financial & Insurance activities.

HR1 notifications by sector and month in D2N2

Locak Data Update

D2N2 workplace activity for the week ending October 31 was around 27% below the pre-pandemic baseline [3], according to Google mobility data for D2N2, which has been slowly trending upwards since January. Visits to Retail and Recreation locations was around the baseline levels (-2%) in the last week of October.

Workplace mobility trends in D2N2, Google

Workplace mobility trends

Retail and Recreation mobility trends in D2N2, Google

Workplace mobility trends

Estimates of Covid-19 impact based on national surveys

In collaboration with Nottingham Trent University and the University of Nottingham D2N2 LEP keeps updating the published online tool tracking quarterly estimates of private sector employment, sales and investment at local authority level. The estimates show that in Q4 2021 private sector employment, sales and capital expenditure are still below the levels expected without the impact of Covid-19 by 3.4%, 3.3% and 5.0%, respectively. The negative impacts on sales and employment measures are expected to persist post 2022. Investment, however, is expected to recover.

According to the estimates, D2N2 districts/boroughs impacted more than average in terms of private sector
jobs are likely to be Derbyshire Dales, Mansfield, Newark and Sherwood, High Peak, Nottingham, Gedling,
Derby, Erewash, and South Derbyshire.

Local Impacts

[1] Claims for the third SEISS grant received up to 31st January 2021. Claims for the fifth grant were opened on 29 July 2021 and the latest data release covers claims submitted up to October 7th.

[2] HR1 form is a redundancy notification which must be completed when an employer proposes making twenty or more employees redundant. It is used to inform the Redundancy Payments Service of potential redundancies within the business. The data were shared by CLGU with strict non-disclosure requirements, which is why the actual numbers are not displayed on the provided chart.

[3] The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the five week period 3 Jan – 6 Feb 2020. The reported figures are measured as a 7-day average.

D2N2 maintains a number of datasets to help inform decision making.

Our D2N2 Economy Dashboard summarises key monthly and medium term trends from official data, together with trend data from Google Mobility and provides a forward look at potential trends in sales, employment and investment based on the findings of the Decision Makers’ Panel. Each page shows a D2N2 perspective and can be filtered down to district level.

Other dashboards that are regularly maintained include:

Historic dashboards – no updates planned:

Data on D2N2:

Midlands Engine Observatory :

Get in touch.

Address

D2N2 Local Enterprise Partnership

8 Experian Way

Nottingham

Nottinghamshire

NG2 1EP

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