1. D2N2 ECONOMIC RISK AND RECOVERY
We track a number of high-level indicators to give a snapshot of the D2N2 area’s economic recovery progress.
The above percentages in bold for furlough and self-employed claims and job vacancies show better outcomes compared to the national average
Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS), which supports employers in paying their employees furloughed from 1 March 2020, has seen a further decrease in claims in September 2021 with a total of 31,800 D2N2 jobs supported through the scheme. The main sectors remain Wholesale and Retail Trade, Manufacturing and Accommodation and Food Services accounting for 43% of all claims.
Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) provides support for self-employed individuals whose business has been adversely affected by Covid-19 through a series of grants. The number of claims received up to 7 October 2021 totalling 32,200 is currently lower compared to January 2021 . A third of all claims were in Construction sector. A more detailed analysis of the latest CJRS and SEISS data will be available here.
Unemployment and work-related benefit claims continue to follow a slow recovery path decreasing by 23.4% from the May 2020 peak. The most recent data for September 2021 show 62,330 claimants. Nationally, the claimant count has decreased by 21.9% over the same period. Claimants as a percentage of the working age population make up 4.5% in D2N2 compared to 5.0% nationally. A more detailed analysis of the latest claimant count data is available here.
Job vacancies have recovered since last year’s lows and September figures show a 49.7% increase compared to September last year. Nationally job vacancies are up by 47.2%. The number of job vacancies in D2N2 now exceeds the number of unemployment claimants. A third of all job postings over the last 6 months were in higher paid managerial and professional occupations.
Notifications of large-scale redundancies (HR1)  are significantly lower compared to the levels seen last year. In September 2021 Manufacturing, Trade and Transportation and Storage accounted for all notifications. Over the same month nationally, the sectors with most notifications of redundancies were Trade, Manufacturing and Financial & Insurance activities.
HR1 notifications by sector and month in D2N2
D2N2 workplace activity for the week ending October 31 was around 27% below the pre-pandemic baseline , according to Google mobility data for D2N2, which has been slowly trending upwards since January. Visits to Retail and Recreation locations was around the baseline levels (-2%) in the last week of October.
Workplace mobility trends in D2N2, Google
Retail and Recreation mobility trends in D2N2, Google
Estimates of Covid-19 impact based on national surveys
In collaboration with Nottingham Trent University and the University of Nottingham D2N2 LEP keeps updating the published online tool tracking quarterly estimates of private sector employment, sales and investment at local authority level. The estimates show that in Q4 2021 private sector employment, sales and capital expenditure are still below the levels expected without the impact of Covid-19 by 3.4%, 3.3% and 5.0%, respectively. The negative impacts on sales and employment measures are expected to persist post 2022. Investment, however, is expected to recover.
According to the estimates, D2N2 districts/boroughs impacted more than average in terms of private sector
jobs are likely to be Derbyshire Dales, Mansfield, Newark and Sherwood, High Peak, Nottingham, Gedling,
Derby, Erewash, and South Derbyshire.