News - 24 September 2021

D2N2 Economic Recovery Report: September 2021

Welcome to the latest edition of the D2N2 Economic Recovery Report.

This report pulls together information from across the region to understand the impacts of Covid-19 on our economy.

A PDF version of this D2N2 Economic Recovery Report is available for download here.

This latest report focuses on several key areas:

  1. D2N2 Economic Risk and Recovery
  2. Links to Data on D2N2

For previous editions of the D2N2 Economic Recovery Report, please visit here.

1. D2N2 ECONOMIC RISK AND RECOVERY

We track several high-level indicators to give a snapshot of the D2N2 area’s progress towards recovery. A brief overview of monthly or higher frequency indicators at a local level are available below.

Locak Data Update

Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS), which supports employers in paying their employees furloughed from 1 March 2020, has seen a further decrease in claims in June 2021 when a total of 51,900 D2N2 jobs were supported through the scheme. The main sectors remain Accommodation and Food Services, Wholesale and Retail Trade and Manufacturing accounting for 46% of all claims.

Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) provides support for self-employed individuals whose business has been adversely affected by Covid-19 through a series of grants. The number of claims received up to 6 June 2021[1] totalling 52,200 is currently lower compared to January 2021 . A third of all claims and 41% of the total value of claims were in Construction sector. A more detailed analysis of the latest CJRS and SEISS data will be available here.

Unemployment and work-related benefit claims continue to follow a slow recovery path decreasing by 17.7% from the May 2020 peak and the most recent data for July 2021. Nationally, the claimant count has decreased by 14.8% over the same period In July 2021 D2N2 claimant count was at 66,930 compared to 81,370 last May. Claimants as a percentage of the working age population make up 4.8% in D2N2 compared to 5.4% nationally. A more detailed analysis of the latest claimant count data is available here.

Job vacancies have recovered since last year’s lows and July figures show a 54.7% increase compared to July last year. Nationally job vacancies are up by 45.3%. The number of job vacancies in D2N2 now exceeds the number of unemployment claimants.

Notifications of large-scale redundancies (HR1)[2] are significantly lower compared to the levels seen last year. In July 2021 Real Estate and Construction accounted for two thirds of all notifications. Over the same month nationally, the sectors with most notifications of redundancies were Information & Communication, Manufacturing and Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities.

HR1 notifications by sector and month in D2N2

HR1 Notifications by sector and month

D2N2 workplace activity in June was around 25% below the pre-pandemic baseline[1], according to Google mobility data for D2N2, which has been trending upwards since January. At the end of May, visits to retail and recreation locations has exceeded the baseline levels for the first time since August 2020 and is currently slightly below the baseline levels (-3%).

Workplace mobility trends in D2N2, Google

Workplace mobility trends

Retail and Recreation mobility trends in D2N2, Google

Retail and Recreation Mobility Trends

Negative impact of Covid-19 on ambitious businesses has decreased over time. Beauhurst estimate that at the end of August a small percentage of businesses in D2N2 are still facing a high level of risk (0.6%) whilst 35.2% may experience a positive outcome. Nationally, a lower percentage may experience potentially positive outcomes (30.9%) and a similar proportion are experiencing high levels of risk (1%).

Covid-19 business impact over time in D2N2, Beauhurst

Covid-19 business impact over time in D2N2

Estimates of Covid-19 impact based on national surveys

In collaboration with Nottingham Trent University and the University of Nottingham D2N2 LEP keeps updating the published the online tool tracking quarterly estimates of private sector employment, sales and investment at local authority level. The estimates show that in Q3 2021 private sector employment, sales and capital expenditure are below the levels expected without the impact of Covid-19 by 4.2%, 5.1% and 6.8%, respectively.

The negative impacts on these performance measures are expected to persist post 2022. According to the estimates, D2N2 districts/boroughs impacted more than average in terms of private sector jobs are likely to be Derbyshire Dales, Newark and Sherwood, High Peak, Mansfield, Nottingham, Erewash and Gedling.

Local Impacts

D2N2 maintains a number of datasets to help inform decision making.

Our D2N2 Economy Dashboard summarises key monthly and medium term trends from official data, together with trend data from Google Mobility and provides a forward look at potential trends in sales, employment and investment based on the findings of the Decision Makers’ Panel. Each page shows a D2N2 perspective and can be filtered down to district level.

Other dashboards that are regularly maintained include:

Historic dashboards – no updates planned:

Data on D2N2:

Midlands Engine Observatory :

[1] Claims for the third SEISS grant received up to 31st January 2021. Claims for the fourth grant were opened on 22 April 2021 and the data release covers claims submitted up to June 6th.

[2] HR1 form is a redundancy notification which must be completed when an employer proposes making twenty or more employees redundant. It is used to inform the Redundancy Payments Service of potential redundancies within the business. The data were shared by CLGU with strict nondisclosure requirements, which is why the actual numbers are not displayed on the provided chart.

[3] The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the five week period 3 Jan – 6 Feb 2020. The reported figures aremeasured as a 7-day average.

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